Many people in the UAE are asking one question right now: will this winter be wet? The question started after the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) shared a big climate forecast. It says there is a 96 per cent chance that El Niño will continue from November 2026 to March 2027. That sounds dramatic, but the NCM has made one thing very clear. The number does not mean heavy rain is coming.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It usually shows up every two to seven years. It is not a storm or a hurricane. It starts when the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean gets warmer than normal.
This year, the World Meteorological Organisation says the warming could be strong. Sea surface temperatures in the monitoring area could reach 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. That level would be called exceptional.
What the 96 Per Cent Really Means
This is the part most people miss. The NCM says the 96 per cent figure is only about how long El Niño will last. It is not the chance of rain in the UAE.
In simple words, the centre is saying that El Niño is very likely to stay in place for the next few months, and its effects may even stretch into April. It is not saying that 96 out of 100 days will bring rain.
| Question | Answer from the NCM |
|---|---|
| How likely is El Niño to continue? | 96 percent |
| How long will it last? | November 2026 to March 2027, with effects possibly into April |
| How strong could the Pacific warming be? | Up to 3.8°C above average |
| Does this mean heavy UAE rain? | Not necessarily |
How Could It Affect the UAE?
El Niño happens far away in the Pacific, so its effect on the UAE and the Arabian Gulf is indirect. It can change wind patterns and the movement of low pressure systems. These changes may then play a part in how much rain falls here.
Seasonal forecasts say temperatures and rainfall in the UAE could stay near or above their usual averages during this period. So some extra rain is possible, but the NCM stresses that strength alone does not decide the outcome. A very strong El Niño does not guarantee a very wet winter in the country.
If you want to read more about the weather side of this story, here is a look at how the UAE could see hotter and more humid weather as El Niño strengthens in 2026.
Should You Change Your Plans?
For most people, not yet. The best habit is to check the NCM updates before big outdoor plans, because the forecast can shift from week to week.
Sports fans have a lot of outdoor events coming up. The Dubai T100 is close, and you can read what to know before you go in this piece, just two weeks to go as Dubai T100 brings three days of racing and entertainment to Al Mamzar. Women who want to race can also look at the Dubai Women’s Triathlon Cup 2026, with entries open for three races at Al Mamzar Beach Park. Events like these depend on the weather, so keep an eye on the forecast as the dates get closer.
What to Keep in Mind
A few simple points can help you make sense of the news.
First, El Niño is a climate pattern, not a single weather event. Second, the UAE feels its effects only in an indirect way. Third, the 96 percent number tells us about duration, not about rainfall. Finally, the NCM expects temperatures and rainfall to stay near or above usual levels, which is a general outlook and not a promise of storms.
Whenever a big number like this goes around, it helps to read what the experts actually said. Here, the message is calm and clear. A strong El Niño is likely, but nobody can say yet how much rain it will bring to the UAE.
If you want a break from weather news, entertainment fans can catch up on the IIFA Awards 2026 full winners list, where Dhurandhar, Chhaava, Baramulla and more took top honours.
For now, enjoy the cooler months, stay updated, and check official weather alerts before you travel or plan anything outdoors.